Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 5/25(click to enlarge) Gold rallied from 1169 to 1232 in May, breaking above the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4H chart. The 4H RSI broke above 70 and even 80, which signals strong bullish momentum. Price has retreated from 1232 and is now hovering above 1200 and the 100- and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs). The RSI is around 40. If the market is to maintain the prevailing bullish outlook, gold should hold above 1200 and the RSI should stay above 40 for the most part. Then a break above 1215 would likely signal bullish continuation with pressure on the 1232 high with risk of breaking higher. On the other hand, a if price drops below 1190 or even just below 1195, the noted support factors would be clearedand the 1169-1170 lows would be in play again.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart 5/25(click to enlarge) If price does drop back towards the 1170 low, the prevailing down trend since 2014, and going back to 2011 might be revived. So if gold starts anchoring below 1200, the downside risk extends beyond 1170, towards the 1143 low on the year and the 1130 low from 2014.