EUR/GBP - Back at the September Trendline after Data Points
The EUR/GBP started the week strong, breaking above last week's consolidation roughly between 0.7980 and 0.7945. The bullish attempt did not last long as traders faded EUR/GBP at 0.8010. It fell sharply to last week's low, and is now breaking that low after UK and Eurozone data.
If price clears 0.7930, there should be downside risk to the 0.7891 support pivot, as well as 0.7874, the July and 2014-low.
UK Data: Today, we got a few data points for the labor market but they are a bit untimely, for July and August.
1) The average earnings index 3m/y for July came in at 0.6%. This beat forecasts around 0.5% and is a major improvement from June's -0.1% reading. Wage growth might pick up after all, and the BoE will have one fewer thing to worry about before implementing a rate hike.
2) Claimant Count for August fell 37.2K, more than the forecast around 29.7K. The July reading was also revised, to -37.4K from -33.6K, showing more people leaving unemployment benefits than expected in the last 2 months.
3) The unemployment rate in July was 6.2%, better than the forecast of 6.3%, and lower than the June reading of 6.4%.
4) The BoE released its meeting minutes. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously for the bond purchase program to stay course at 375B pound. For the interest rate vote, 7 voted to maintain rates, and 2 voted to increase the benchmark rate from 0.50% to 0.75%. (Martin Weale, and Ian McCafferty).
Eurozone Data: August CPI y/y was revised to a final version of 0.4%. This is not as bad as the 0.3% originally estimated, but far from the 2.0% ECB target.