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Fan Yang

Gold - Another Change to Sell on a Rally

I have been gaining more confidence on the bearish scenario in gold. My expectation is that it will soon test the 2015-low as well as the 2014-low. Recent price action has been in-line with this outlook as I noted earlier this week. Gold - Falling Trendline Comes into Play. Today, we have another chance to see if that trendline will come into play again, and there is no significant reason to believe it won't. 

Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart 7/9
(click to enlarge)

As we can see in the 4H chart, gold's price action is facing a similar conditions as it did at the beginning of the week. 1) Price is testing the 50-period SMA, 2) And the falling trendine. 

Maybe we can give it some elbow space towards 1170, but if price falls below 1160 during the rest of the 7/9 session or during the 7/10 session, we could have a bearish continuation at hand to test and perhaps break the 1147.16 low on the week.

Gold (XAU/USD) 1H Chart 7/9
(click to enlarge)

When we look at the 1H chart, we still see bearish control despite the rally during the 7/8 session. The rally has slowed and resembles a rising wedge pattern. Price is still holding under the 200-hour SMA an the 1H RSI is still holding below 60. As noted above, a break below 1160 could be a trigger as it would break below the rising wedge. A break below 1157 would be another strong clue for bearish continuation because it would clear below the cluster of 200-. 100-. and 50-hour SMAs.

A break above 1170 however might introduce some short-term consolidation and/or bullish correction going into next week. Otherwise, let's assess the 7/8 session rally as a near-term correction that the market will fade. 

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