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Fan Yang

USD/JPY Awaiting Breakout with Bearish Bias

USD/JPY has been consolidating since breaking below a key support at 108.00. Price has been ranging roughly between 107.10 and 109. 

$USDJPY Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Consolidation:
- We can see that price held above this 107-107.10 area a couple of times, once in June and again in July.
- On the other end, price failed to break 109 twice in July.
- Price started the 8/1 session with a strong retreat from this resistance to almost support. The current session is extending this dip and cracking the support around 107.10. 
- I think the market is gearing up for a bearish breakout.
1) Failed bullish attempt after a potential double bottom.
2) Price remained below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).
3) The RSI held under 60, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum.
4) Finally, the sharpness of this week's bearish reaction is a strong signal that the 107-107.10 support won't hold. 
- I think the downside will be towards the 104.50-104.60. 

USD/JPY Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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