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Fan Yang

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) Falls on Weak Guidance, Maintaining Bearish Momentum

Nvidia Corp. $NVDA fell sharply on Monday's (1/28) the opening bell after cutting guidance based on challenges in China. Here's a summary from CNBC:

  • The warning adds Nvidia to a growing list of U.S. companies facing revenue challenges in China.
  • The company reports earnings on Feb. 14, and now expects quarterly revenue of $2.20 billion, down from previously stated guidance of $2.70 billion.
  • The company also pointed to headwinds in gaming and data centers

From: Nvidia tanks 12% after chipmaker cuts guidance, citing 'deteriorating' economic conditions in China

This is a significant cut, and will potentially keep NVDA pressured at least in the first half of 2019.

NVDA Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Momentum:
- We can see that the prevailing trend has been bearish since October 2018. 
- This could be just a pullback from the prevailing uptrend, but it has already become a significant one.
- So far, there are no signs that the bearish correction is over. 
- In fact, the fact that the current resistance is at $160, which is below the previous resistance, shows that bears are still in charge.
-The RSI held under 60, which generally reflects maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum.
- These bearish price signals combined with weak guidance will likely drag price down towards the $100 area. 
- I would limit the bearish outlook to that for now, and wouldn't be surprised if the market supported NVDA a little higher, like around $110, which is the middle of the consolidation range that formed from late-December 2016 to mid-May of 2017.
- $110 would also be around a 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Resistance:
- It looks like the market is scooping up NVDA after the bearish open during the 1/28 Monday session. 
- However, I would expect resistance when it approaches $150, and essentially closes the opening gap. 
- Such a reaction (resistance after approaching $150) would further confirm the bearish outlook.

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