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Fan Yang

EUR/USD - the Bearish Continuation Scenario

After retreating from 1.1466, EUR/USD has essentially completed a bearish continuation signal when it fell below 1.10. The daily chart shows that the 1.4666 resistance was in a previous support/resistance pivot area in January/February, suggesting that this is still a bears market.

EUR/USD Daily Chart 5/26

(click to enlarge)

EUR/USD has fallen below 1.10, breaking several key support factors: 
1) a rising trendline,
2) a support/resistance pivot around 1.1060,
3) and the 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

The short-term mode is bearish while the medium-term mode is neutral-bearish. This means we can look for a dip towards the 1.0462-1.0520 lows on the year. A less aggressive bearish target could be the 1.06 handle. But with the current stance of the ECB vs. the FOMC, we should take on an aggressive bearish bias.

If we see a very short-term pullback, we can expect resistance below 1.12. A bearish market should not allow EUR/USD to reclaim or the pressure would revert to the upside. 

In the 4H chart consider looking the RSI back near 60 while looking monitoring for resistance, closer to the 1.1065-1.11 area than to 1.12. 

EUR/USD 4H Chart 5/26
(click to enlarge)

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