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Fan Yang

American International Group (AIG) - Bullish Breakout vs. Critical Pivot

Multinational insurance company $AIG has been in bullish mode since finding support just above $36 in late 2018. This support turned out to be a double bottom against a prevailing downtrend. Price action then developed into a larger price bottom as we can see on the daily chart below.

AIG Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Price Bottom:
- While the double bottom was a brief signal for bullish correction, the larger price bottom signals a more significant bullish reversal or at least a much more significant bullish correction.
- Price After breaking above the neckline around $44.85, price extended to break above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) as well as a falling trendline resistance.
- Meanwhile, the RSI held above 40 the whole time, reflecting the maintenance of this nascent bullish momentum.
Key Resistance:
- While price action looks bullish in the short-term, it will be coming up against a medium to long-term resistance pivot. Take a look at the weekly chart below.
- As we can see, it does look like AIG just completed an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
- But we can see that the $49-$50 area was a previously critical neckline for a multi-year price top. And it could become a critical resistance.
- A break above $50 would be a good sign for the bullish outlook, although some volatility can be expected as price moves up to $55. 
- However, I would expect that bulls and bears will battle it out in the $45-$50 area. I think there will be some consolidation here.
- I would look for directional signal after such consolidation, with the next upswing limited to the $56-$58 area, or downswing limited to the $40 area. 

AIG Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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