Last time we looked UPS, we noted that it pulled back up sharply after a very brief bearish breakout. We noted that a break above 107 opens up the 109.30 resistance area. This week, price indeed broke above 107.UPS Daily Chart(click to enlarge)Prevailing Bearish Bias:- The bearish outlook had the momentum.- The prevailing swing was a bearish one from just above 120 to about 103.20.- In this swing, price broke below the 200- and 100-day simple moving averages. Then, price held below these SMAs, further confirming that bears were in charge. - Furthermore, the RSI tagged below 30 and has held below 60 for the most part, which reflects maintenance of the bearish outlook.False Breakout:- I am calling it a false breakout because first of all the break below 103.20 was brief as price rebounded quickly back into the range.- If price held below 107, the middle of the range, then the bearish outlook would still be valid.- However as price pushes above 107, it looks more like a false breakout.- A false bearish breakout suggests upside risk. Therefore, we should not rely on resistance around 109.30. We might see some brief pullback. But again, 107 will be important. - If price holds above 107 after a pullback, then we can be even more confident that price action is turning bullish. - If price does push above 110 and hold above 107, UPS will open up the 120 handle.