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Fan Yang

Don't get that excited about the pending breakout in Ford

Since failing to push above 18 in 2014, Ford (F) has been bearish. Price slid to 11.00 in 2015 and again in 2016 in a falling channel.

Ford Daily Chart 7/12

(click to enlarge)

Bullish in 2016, Pending Breakout: 
The daily chart shows that price has been resilient in 2016 after tagging 11.00 as support. 
Price has been consolidating since it cracked 14.00 in March. The consolidation is a falling wedge. 
The reaction after Brexit was bearish - the overall market was risk averse as well. This dragged F below the consolidation pattern.
Price bounced up from 12.00 and is rallying sharply, threatening to break above the noted consolidation since March. 
The fact that price broke lower but is reversing upwards sharply suggests further upside at least in the short-term.

The short-term target for a break above the consolidation pattern will be 14-14.20.
A break above 14.20 could open up a strong rally, BUT there is a falling channel resistance that could challenge this scenario around 14.50. 

Limited upside. 
So, even though we have a pending bullish breakout, we should only anticipate about a 10% gain before a strong resistance factor comes into play. The reward to risk is not there unless price dips back towards 12.50.

Channel Breakout is More Important
A breakout of the falling channel will be needed to really liberate F and expose it to a bullish scenario with 18.00 in sight. 

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