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Fan Yang

AUD/USD Maintains Bearish Structure

Last time we looked at $AUDUSD, we saw that it broke below a key support and was moving towards the next one around 0.6825.

AUD/USD Falls to Key Support Around 0.6825

However, price didn't get there before rebounding to $0.70.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bears Still in Charge:
- After this rally, price retreated from 0.70.
- Price action this week has so far been bearish with price falling below a support around 0.6950 and a recent rising trendline.
- Meanwhile, price held under the cluster of moving averages and the RSI turned down under 60. 
- These are all signs that bears are still in charge.
- The 0.6825 area might still be in sight, but I suspect AUD/USD will find support around there. 
Interest Rate Spread:
- The RBA has been dovish and has cut the cash rate to a historic rate of 1.25%. 
- Meanwhile, the Fed is also starting to look dovish and rate cut expectations are rising. 
- The thing is RBA has pulled the trigger while the Fed has been steady in 2019. 
- But I suspect as price approaches 0.6825, rate cut expectations could creep into the pricing of AUD/USD and it might find support and rebound as it did in May. 

A Fed Rate Cut Looks More Likely. The Question Is When and by How Much (Bloomberg 6/9)

RBA slashes cash rate to all-time low of 1.25 per cent ( 6/4)

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