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Shake Shack (SHAK) Earnings Disappoint; Correction Dips into Key Support Area

Shake Shack is reeling from its recent earnings report. 

(Investor's Business Daily 11/1/2018) Shake Shack (SHAK) stock got slammed after hours after the better-burger chain reported an unexpected drop in Q3 same-store sales.

The company also lowered expectations for the number of stores it expects to open this year — a big focal point for Wall Street.

Shake Shack Earnings
Estimates: A 23.5% drop in Shake Shack earnings per share to 13 cents, according to Zacks Investment Research. Revenue was expected to jump 23% to $117 million. Same-store sales were expected to rise 0.9%, according to Consensus Metrix.

Results: Revenue rose 26.5% to $119.6 million. Same-store sales fell 0.7%. EPS came in at 17 cents.

Outlook: Shake Shack said it expected between 33 and 34 domestic company-run stores to open this year, compared to earlier expectations for 32 to 35. The company expects 14-16 net new licensed locations to open in 2018, compared to 16-18 earlier.

Still, Shake Shack raised its full-year revenue outlook to a range of $450 million and $452 million. That was up from $446 million to $450 million. But it was still below analysts' estimates for $452 million.

The company stuck with its outlook for same-store sales ranging from flat to up 1%.

For next year, Shake Shack said it expected to open 36-40 domestic company-run stores and 16-18 net new licensed ones.

...

(Investor's Business Daily)

SHAK Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

ABC Correction:
- We discussed the possibility of downside to $47-$48 in September: Anticipating More Downside in Shake Shack (SHAK)
- At the time, we limited the bearish outlook to this area, citing support here from a rising trendline as well as previous resistance pivots. 
- After the earnings report, price fell sharply into this support on Friday (11/2), where we are at least initially seeing support.
- We can also see that this completed an ABC correction. 
- I think at this point, we can anticipate further downside towards $44-$45.60 area. 
- This area involves the 2016 high and previous resistance pivot as well as the 61.8% retracement level.
- Indeed, if price gets into this area with the RSI under 30, we should anticipate a bullish swing.

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