Currency moves have been moving without any link to relative interest rates, which is traditionally a strong factor to fx movements. For example, USD/JPY has been falling despite the fact that BoJ has moved to negative interest rate, and the FOMC is getting ready to raise rates. Here's an article from Bloomberg: The World's Currencies Have Lost a Fundamental AnchorIf we still believe in the fundamental factors behind currency moves, then the recent dip in USD/JPY should be seen as a correction, or as a displacement that offers a chance to buy into a long-term trend. USD/JPY Weekly Chart 2/29(click to enlarge) While I believe the concept that USD/JPY should return to the bullish trend, I feel that in the short to medium-term, we still have to respect the prevailing bearish moves especially in the past couple of months. The price action as we can see in the weekly chart, is heavy. The RSI has pushed below 40, reminding us that the prevailing bullish momentum in the previous years have died out. Further Downside Risk: In the context of a LT bullish trend, USD/JPY is in a medium-term correction that has downside risk to 110, and also the 105.50-106.70 area, which includes a previous support/resistance pivot area as well as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of its 2011-2015 rally. USD/JPY 4H Chart 2/29(click to enlarge) Short-term Bullish Signs: So, I am bullish in the long-term, but neutral-bearish in the medium-term. In the short-term though, I do see a bullish potential as price held above 111.00 twice in February, a sign that a bottom could be forming. Resistance at 114.50: If price can anchor above 113, there is upside at least to 114.50. Now, I would respect the resistance here in the 114.50-115 area, especially if I see a bearish divergence in the 4H chart. From 114.50-115, I would look at the bearish targets of 113, and then 111. 113 represents the middle of the current consolidation range (roughly between 111 and 115), and 111 is the support. From a trade management perspective, if shorting at 114.50 works and price does reach 111, I would still keep a small position as a "runner" that can possibly ride an extension to the 2016 bearish correction.Above 114.50, we would have a double bottom. The 115.50-116 area would be the next key resistance - this use to be the support area for a year-long consolidation, seen in the weekly chart. Now, because USD/JPY is in a medium-term consolidation/correction, I would limit the bullish outlook to 118, which was also a previously common support that could turn into resistance.