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Fan Yang

Euro lower after ECB meeting

The ECB essentially held to its prevailing monetary policy. Here are a few informative links:

ECB Press Release

Draghi Vexed by Feeble Reforms as Inflation Remains Weak

I think the market was mainly focused on inflation expectations after such run up in oil prices the past few months. However, inflation forecasts were the same as those in March, with a predication of 1.6% for 2018. The market therefore would understandable assess the ECB as dovish, with risk leaning towards extending stimulus measures. 

The euro fell across the board. 

EUR/GBP 1H Chart 6/3

(click to enlarge)

The 1H chart shows that EUR/GBP was bullish earlier in the week but retreated after the ECB event risk. It continues to slide and has the short-term risk of sliding back towards 0.7640-0.7650 area. A hold above this area would improve the chance of EUR/GBP developing a bullish outlook. Otherwise it is at best sideways, and possibly even slightly bearish with the 0.7565 level and lower in sight. 

EUR/USD 1H Chart 6/3

(click to enlarge)

EUR/USD looked like it was going to develop a bullish reversal outlook throughout the week. Now this scenario is being recalled, and a bearish continuation scenario is emerging. Failure to hold above 1.1150 for me is a sign that bulls lost the fight. Now price has 1.11 and 1.10 in sight. 

The thing is, the non-farm payroll report today (6/3) will be key for the USD side. Expectation is tempered with a average economists predicting data to show 159K jobs added for May, which is essentially the same level as in April. If there is a surprise to the upside, with the reading closer to 200K, we should see EUR/USD fall further. Lower than 150K reading might hamper the EUR/USD decline in the short-term. 

I would want to re-assess EUR/USD after the reaction tomorrow. I lean on a bearish continuation scenario, but if price ends holding above 1.11 come next week, the pair might be flattening and building a base for a bullish outlook. 

From a trading standpoint, EUR/USD is not in a good place for buy or sell because it is in the middle of a consolidation range that has been developing for more than a year. Any trades should be limited to the short-term. 

EUR/USD Daily Chart 6/3

(click to enlarge)

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