Bank shares have been recovering since late December, and Morgan Stanley $MS was one of them. It rebounded from a 2018 low of $36.78 to about $45 on Wednesday (1/16). However, after the session closed, Morgan Stanley released its Q4 earnings report, and it disappointed. Here's a summary from CNBC:The bank posted profit of 80 cents per share, below the 89 cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Companywide revenue declined 10 percent to $8.55 billion, compared with the $9.3 billion estimate.Morgan Stanley's two biggest businesses, Wall Street trading and advisory and wealth management, suffered revenue declines amid a difficult market environment last year.The firm posted the weakest fixed-income trading results of its peers, plunging 30 percent to $564 million, compared with the $806 million estimate.The bank posted profit of 80 cents per share, below the 89 cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. Companywide revenue declined 10 percent to $8.55 billion, compared with the $9.3 billion estimate. The firm's institutional securities business, which contains its trading and advisory units, posted $3.84 billion in revenue, nearly $500 million below the $4.33 billion estimate. The bank's wealth management division posted $4.14 billion in revenue, compared with the $4.45 billion estimate. Only the bank's smallest division, investment management, exceeded estimates, producing $684 million in revenue, versus the $656.7 million estimate. "This is not Morgan Stanley's finest hour," said Octavio Marenzi, CEO of capital markets consultancy Opimas. "In wealth management, Morgan Stanley's revenues were down 6%, while competing firms were able to eke out single-digit growth. In equities trading, Morgan Stanley was even further behind the competition, with flat revenues where other investment banks were able to benefit from market volatility and show double-digit growth." (CNBC)Apparently, Morgan Stanley was like the New York Knicks of the big bank names in Q4 2018. While Goldman Sachs $GS and Bank of America's $BAC earnings beat estimates, $MS missed them. Let's take a look at the price reaction:MS Daily Chart(click to enlarge)Pulling Back from Bullish Attempt:- MS rallied sharply during the 1/16 session, pulled up by its peers $GS and $BAC.- However, the market didn't simply truck through a key resistance around $45. There was a falling trendline here.- Then it opened on the 1/17 session with a gap down, completely paring the upwards opening gap of the 1/16 session.- I think if price holds under $44, there is downside pressure.- On the other hand, if price can hold above $40, there is still upwards pressure. - So let's monitor these two levels for now.Breakout Scenario:- Who knows how long the current market recovery will last. - Let's say it extends into February, past the current earnings season.- Then, we might even see MS extend its recovery despite it missing earnings estimates.- In this scenario, which would involve a bullish breakout above $45, MS would open up the $48-$50 area. - The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) is around $48, and there is a key support/resistance pivot around $50. Bearish Scenario:- If price holds under $44 and closes under $40, we might have a bearish continuation swing at hand. - In this scenario, price has a chance to retest the 2018-low around $36.75. - Below that, there is downside towards the $31-$33.60 pivot area. MS Weekly Chart(click to enlarge)