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Fan Yang

Alcoa Corp. (AA) - Price Action Shows Bearish Bias To Retest $25-$26 Support

Alcoa $AA has been consolidating since late 2018 after a bearish swing from highs around $62 in April to lows around $25-$26 in December. After a few months of consolidation, price action suggests further downside.

AA Daily Chart

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Consolidation Pattern:
- We can see that there was a bullish swing in late 2018 into January 2019. Then there was another bullish swing in February.
-  Perhaps these are the A and C swings of an ABC correction.
- Another way to look at the consolidation pattern is to note that there is a general head and shoulders shape to it. While H&S patterns are often assessed as a topping pattern after a bull run, it is also a signal for bearish continuation in the middle of a bearish trend. 
- Finally, we can say that the pattern of higher high and higher low since late December is over because the recent high in March was under $30 while the February high was around $31.45.
- Finally, we should remember that the overall price structure is still bearish with price under the 200- and now the 100- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA).  
- I think price will retest the low around $25-$26 with a strong possibility of breaking lower if price does test this area again.
- Below $25, I would limit the most aggressive bearish outlook to the $20 mark. 
- I think the fact that price broke above $40 in 2017 gives AA a slightly bullish bias and price might not return to the 2009-2017 range lows ($12-$14 area). 

AA Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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