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Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) at Critical Support

Earlier this week, I noted that the stock price action of Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) suggests upside towards 17. I also mentioned that this bullish case is anchored on price holding above 12.00. Well, the market appears to be unconvinced of upside and has dragged ANF back to this critical support.

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) 4H Chart


(click to enlarge)

Why 12 is Critical:
- 12.00 is where the 200- and 100-period simple moving averages (SMAs) are residing around.
- It also around the central pivot of the prevailing range, which is roughly between 10.50 and 13.75. 
- We also have a previous support pivot here, after which we saw a sharp jump. Therefore, this is a line of defense for the bullish scenario.
- Finally, as price tests 12.00, the RSI is testing 40. If the RSI can hold above 40, it suggests that the prevailing bullish momentum (from April), is still in play. 
Upside:
- If price bounces off 12.00 again, the bullish outlook towards 17.00 is maintained. 
- But it looks like price could simply be consolidating just above 12.00 and below 14.50. Thus, a break above 14.50 is another clue that ANF might make it back to 17.00.
Downside:
- A break below 12.00 first opens up the 10.50 support and 2017 low.
- In this scenario, we should anticipate bearish correction of the long-term trend because the April-May rally would look like a false bullish breakout. A false bullish breakout in the middle of a downtrend like ANF is in, suggests subsequent continuation of the downtrend.
- The simple weekly chart below shows that ANF has been in a long-term bearish trend since the second half of 2011. 
- It should be noted that the short to medium-term bullish outlook to 17.00 would still be within the context of the prevailing long-term downtrend. 

Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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