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Fan Yang

Boston Beer Company (SAM) Looking to Revisit 2016 Lows

The maker of Samuel Adams, Boston Beer Company has been consolidating in 2016. After a failed bullish breakout, it looks like the market is still neutral-bearish, with the 2016 lows in sight.

SAM Daily Chart 1/11


(click to enlarge)

Neutral-Bearish:
- The fact that price held above 145 twice in 2016 suggested that the bearish market has stalled.
- The fact that the RSI has swung between 30 and 70 suggested there was no strong momentum in one direction in 2016. 
- However, the price highs in shares of SAM continued to fall when comparing the highs in March, August and November. 
- Failure to extend the bullish breakout in November suggests that the bearish component is still very strong.

Bearish Break:

- This week, price fell below a key support at 164, signaling bearish outlook at least in the short-term.
- Price is also below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving average (SMA) cluster, another sign that bears are still in control.
- The RSI also broke below 40, which means the prevailing bullish momentum (Oct through Nov) is no more. 
- A bearish break within a neutral-bearish market suggests that price is bound to test that 2016 low just above 145. If 3rd times the charm, we might see it break, which would continue the pre-2016 bearish trend, and open up the 100 handle. 

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