USD/CAD was entering the day on a bearish note as oil prices recover (helping the CAD). Today, a better-than-expected retail sales report appears to be pushing CAD higher (USD/CAD lower) as well.(forexfactory.com)The previous retail sales numbers were also revised up. USD/CAD 1H Chart 6/22(click to enlarge)Retail sales data is tertiary: Canadian retail sales data is not one that is considered a market mover, like its BoC meetings, inflation or employment data. Furthermore, the data is for April and we are almost done with June. So I think today's data is helping grease the wheel of USD/CAD's decline, but it doesn't soften the trendline support the pair is about to face.USD/CAD Daily Chart 6/22(click to enlarge)The daily chart shows USD/CAD in a triangle. While I don't think the retail sales data is a catalyst to break the triangle support, I do think if WTI Crude Oil stays above 50, USD/CAD will break down the triangle and open up the 2016 low at 1.2460. USDWTI Crude 4H Chart 6/22(click to enlarge)Crude tests 50 as Brexit vote nears: USDWTI Crude does look like it has formed a top especially after it broke below a rising trendline. However, there is a significant bullish pullback that is threatening the bearish outlook. I noted that if it can hold under 50, the bearish outlook is still alive. At this point, WTI Crude has reclaimed 50, but the question still remains - which side of 50 will it be after this week. This is indeed an important week because the Brexit vote could shake things up.