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Fan Yang


We saw some risk aversion this week. For example, the S&P500 had the first week without a higher high since January. The week is winding down with UM Consumer Sentiment disappointing at 79.9 for March. This data missed forecasts of around 82, and slid from last month's 81.6. 

USD/JPY made a complete 180 from last week and is now about to challenge some major support factors.

GBP/JPY continued to fall after breaking below a rising trendline from February. It dipped to a new March low. This completely reverses last week's bullish breakout signal and revives short-term bearish outlook with the 166.00 as the next key pivot in the 4H chart.

(GBP/JPY 4H chart)

The EUR/JPY also fell this week, but not as dramatically as USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. In fact it is winding down the week rebounding off a projected channel support in the 4H chart - the channel going back to February. 

It looks if we are considering fading this JPY-strength, EUR/JPY is a good candidate as it still looks bullish, and the 4H oscillators are turning. There was also a bit of consolidation so it is not as much a falling-knife case as the UJ and GJ.

(EUR/JPY 4H Chart)

Another pair that might be a candidate to buy on the dip is AUD/JPY. The 4H chart shows the the pullback after last week's bullish breakout. Friday's price action surrounded the 61.8% retracement level. We might still have some downside risk, but the 91.00 handle and the rising support from February might an area of demand.

(AUD/JPY 4H Chart)

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