The USD/JPY has been rallying from 122.40 since last week. It continue push higher this week until 124.37. Then it retreated as we can see in the 1H chart. USD/JPY 1H Chart 5/26(click to enlarge) Here are some observations from the 1H chart:1) The structure of the rally appears to be a motive wave (in Elliott Wave Terminology). IF that is the case, and the pair is bullish, we should see a bounce off of the 123.21 pivot. 2) Price has crossed above the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs, and a bullish market should hold price above 123.40 and thus hold price at or above the cluster of SMAs. 3) Eventually a break above 123.80 would be needed to initiate a bullish continuation scenario towards the 124.37-124.50 area and possibly higher. 4) The RSI is cracking 40, if the market is going to be bullish, it should turn u pand hold above 40, and push above 60. 5) If price falls below 123.20, and the RSI falls below 40, we should expect an attempt back towards the 122.40 low.