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Fan Yang

AUD/USD Bears Clearly in Control Again; 0.6825 in Sight

The US Dollar has been strong this year, but has been resting a bit in recent months. As we wind down the year, it is percolating again. We see greenback-strength clearly in the AUD/USD pair, which recently had a bearish continuation breakout.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Failed Bullish Reversal:
- We can see that price had a bull run in November after a price bottom in October.
- The rally broke above a falling channel resistance and eventually above key resistance 0.7330. 
- The break above 0.7330 essentially completed a rounded bottom.
- However, AUD/USD found strong resistance around 0.74, the middle of the July-August consolidation.
- Furthermore, we can see that AUD/USD stayed under the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). 
- We can also note that the RSI did NOT push to 70, which shows weak or rather lack of bullish momentum.
- The subsequent retreat was sharp and broke below a rising support.
- Last week, after a few days of tentative bullish candles, the market ended with an engulfing bearish candle. 
- The combination of these events is evidence that bears are clearly in control.
- The 0.7155 pivot might provide some near-term support, but I would not rely on it. 
- I think price is falling back to test the 0.7050-0.7060 area with a good chance of breaking lower, and not just to the psychological level of 0.70. 
Bearish Target:

- Looking at the weekly chart, we can also see a myriad of bearish signals.
- Price held under the cluster of moving averages (200-, 100-, and 50-week). 
- The RSI is no longer oversold, but in the bearish area.
- Most importantly, price action shows strong bearish candles. In fact, a couple of weeks ago was a bearish engulfing candle.
- There is downside pressure towards the 2016-low around 0.6825. 

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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