This week showed how things can shift quickly in the markets. For example I have been bullish on GBP/JPY and may remain to be so in the medium-long term. However, short-term outlook is bearish as JPY is gaining across the board. (GBP/JPY 4H chart: click for full view)Rounded Top: The 4H chart shows a failure of GBP/JPY to push above a falling resistance. After the 2/27 session got underway, GBP/JPY broke the 169.15 support area, forming a rounded top to the February rally.167.87 and 167.92 are 50% and 61.8% retracements and both correspond to previous support pivots. Fade the rally:If there is some intra-session rally toward 170, I will consider fading it. Ideally I want to see the 4H Stochastic back near 80 and stochastic near 60 when selling.Continuing ConsolidationThe daily chart shows that the current bearish outlook is within the context of a larger bull run that is consolidating. Even within this bullish context, there is room to fall in the short-term. toward the 166 handle, and 163.80 support, which is the 2014 low so far. However, I would limit the bearish outlook to a maximum of the 200-day SMA; GBP/JPY has been trading above it since Nov. 2012. (GBP/JPY Daily chart: click for full view)