The Australian Bureau of Statistics released retail sales and trade balance data for October, and both beat forecasts. But these data points are not enough to give the Aussie support against its decline that is fueled this week by GDP data that showed Q3 growth slow to 0.3% from 0.5% in Q2, missing forecast of a 0.7% print. AUS Retail Sales m/m (Oct): 0.4%; Forecast: 0.1%; Previous: 1.3%AUS Trade Balance (Oct): -1.32B; Forecast: -1.85B; Previous: -2.24B 1) Both data points are not very timely and are overshadowed by the poor GDP reading.2) Although retail sales beat forecast it does not indicate a trend of growing domestic demand.3) While the trade deficit narrowed, it is still a trade deficit. Until there is a trade surplus, the RBA will likely continue to call the AUD overvalued. (AUD/USD 1H Chart 12/4; click to enlarge) We can see that AUD/USD has just made a fresh low at 0.8385 before rebounding during the release of retail sales an trade balance data. However, price action still looks bearish with risk of breaking into new lows on the year. With AUD/USD at levels not seen since 2010, the pair is poised to push towards the 2010-low at 0.8066, as shown on the monthly chart below. We can also see that the 61.8% retracement of the 2008-2011 rally is at 0.7945. Thus, the area around the psychological level of 0.80 will be a key area to monitor for support, for a medium-term period of consolidation/bullish correction. (AUD/USD Monthly Chart; click to enlarge)