In the previous update on IBM, I noted that it's failure to break above 165 showed that it was still in the long-term bearish trend despite a bullish run in 2016. IBM Daily Chart 10/19(click to enlarge)Price top:- The daily chart shows the 2 failed attempts to break above 165.00. Note the more decisive rejection the second time around.- This week, price dipped below a support/resistance pivot that has been holding up IBM since September. - Now, price has cracked but not completely cleared 150, which is a psychological level. IBM Weekly Chart 10/19(click to enlarge)Downside risk:- Price could be a little sticky here around 150, but further downside risk exists towards the 142-143 area, which was a common support area from April through June. - From a fibonacci retracement perspective, the 50% retracement level will be around 141. This is a viable target.- The 61.85% retracement just above 135 might be a bit aggressive, but should not be surprising. In fact, even if IBM has turned the corner and is entering a bullish trend, the retreat to 135 would still be within the context. - A break below 135 however makes it hard to believe IBM has turned the corner, and puts pressure back towards the lows on the year below 120. As we can see in the weekly chart, this bearish scenario would be in line with the prevailing long-term trend. Resistance: - Right now, price is supported, but how much higher can IBM bounce?- In a bearish scenario, price should not rally back above 157.50 and should really find resistance even in the 152.50-153 area. - In other words, we can expect resistance as early as 152.50, but should not be surprised if price continues to climb to 157.- Now, if price breaks above 157.50, we should look for a retest of that 165 area. In this scenario, I would have confidence of the bullish outlook and would NOT respect 165 as resistance outside of an intra-session reaction.