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Fan Yang

CHF/JPY - S/T Bullish Reversal and M/T Bullish Continuation

I meant to write about this earlier, but its still not too late to monitor the uptrend developing in the CHF/JPY. When we look at the 4H chart, we can see that price has shifted from a prevailing bearish trend after the pair made a August low just below 126.

CHF/JPY 4H Chart 8/21(click to enlarge)

In the 4H chart we can see a price bottom, a consolidation just above the price bottom, then a bullish breakout to confirm the price bottom. During this rally, price also broke a falling trendline. In fact there is another trendline in the daily chart that CHF/JPY has broken, signaling bullish continuation.

At this point, if there is a major pullback, a bullish market should keep price above 127.50. A break below this level would bring price back below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages, and a rising trendline. That would invalidate the bullish reversal signal formed by last 2 week's price action. 

Take a look at the daily chart:
(click to enlarge)

While price action in 2015 has been choppy, we can still see a clear bullish bias. Price has for the most part held above the 200-day simple moving average. After January spike and pullback, price has kept that bullish tilt. This past couple weeks of price action is signaling bullish continuation after breaking a bearish correction patter that began in late June. The short-term bullish reversal in the 4H chart is essentially a bullish continuation signal in the medium-term chart with the 134.60 high from June in sight.

In the very short-term, we can say that the 130 target is sight and might provide some resistance as a psychological level. OR maybe price still stick AROUND 130 for the short-term. Again, if price can hold above 127.50, preferably even above 128, then there is still upside risk to the 134.60 high from June.

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