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AUD/JPY - Bearish Continuation Signal

A Choppy Ride: AUD/JPY has been bearish. This is mainly a result of the Japanese Yen gaining across the board in 2016. We saw a period of consolidation in May throughout June. There was a false break downwards followed by a false break upwards, which was then followed by a very sharp dip. The sharp decline was a result of the Brexit reaction towards risk-aversion.

AUD/JPY 4H Chart 7/5

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Signs: 

1) That Brexit plunge dragged AUD/JPY below the 200-, 100-, and 50-period simple moving averages (SMAs) in the 4H Chart.  
2) Then, we saw a bullish correction that brought AUD/JPY back above 77.00. So far, we are seeing sellers here, another sign that bears have taken over. 
3) Note that price also respected the cluster of moving averages as resistance, keeping the prevailing bearish bias.  
4) The RSI tagged 30 and held under 60 after a pullback. This shows maintenance of the recent bearish momentum.
5) Just looking at price action since the Brexit plunge, we can see that the market was making higher highs and lows, that is until this week, where we are seeing price dip below a previous support pivot (about to make a lower low) .

The bearish outlook puts the the 72.50-73 area back in sight. A possible way to play this now is to wait for some near-term bullish attempt. If one does materialize, it should hold under 77.00, so we can probably plan to sell around this handle. 

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