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Fan Yang

Gold Forming a Rising Channel

The 4H gold chart below shows that price has been consolidating in November. It is forming a rising channel and has shown loss of bearish bias and momentum as price rallied above the 100-, 50-period SMAs. The RSI has also tagged 70 to show some bullish momentum. Furthermore, to add signs of a bullish market developing in the 4H chart ,price has come down a treated the 1175-1180 area, along with the 100-, and 50-period SMAs, as support. This was the resistance of what now looks like a price bottom, and thus this bounce confirms the bottom. 


(click to enlarge; gold 4h chart 11/21)

The rising channel seen in the 4H chart can be interpreted as a flag pattern forming in the daily chart. In this time-frame, gold is still bearish. The 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs are sloping down, in bearish alignment, and are above price action. The RSI has tagged below 30 and held below 60. 

Now, if November's rally extends, we should monitor the 1220 area for sellers. Around 1220, there was a support/resistance pivot and a falling speedline from August's highs around 1320. If price stalls around 1220, and the daily RSI stalls around 60, be ready for a bearish attempt to test the 1175-1180 pivot area again. A break below 1170 might revive the bearish outlook.


(click to enlarge; gold daily chart 11/21)

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