The EUR/CHF has been bearish in 2014, slowly drifting lower throughout the year. The daily chart shows this bearish market from a technical perspective. (EUR/CHF Daily Chart 11/11)Bearish Year:1) The 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are sloping down, in bearish alignment, while price is trading under all of them.2) The daily RSI has held below 60, and was able to tag below 30. This shows bearish momentum development.SNB Floor: Now, this bearish trend is going against a key support at 1.20. The Swiss National Bank has vowed to hold EUR/CHF above this level to keep the CHF exchange rate from rising too high, which can hurt Swiss exports. Knowing this, the market would be prudent to also buy and defend the 1.20 level - that is if the SNB does indeed hold true to its promise.Bullish Scenario: If price pushes above 1.2060, we can consider the 1.20 area defended. However, the bullish outlook should be limited to 1.2118-1.2140 area, which involves some support/resistance pivots, and the October high. Bearish Breakout Scenario: On the other hand, if price continues to fall, a break below 1.20 can open up the floodgates. The weekly chart shows that the low is around 1.1984. A break below 1.1980 might then open up a sharp decline. (EUR/CHF Weekly Chart; click to enlarge)Bearish Target: Note that since price came up above 1.20, it has been in a range roughly between 1.20 and 1.2650. Let's be conservative and say this is about 500 pips (its actually about 650). If there is a clean break below 1.20, we can thus anticipate about 500 pips downside risk, toward the 1.15 handle. Will SNB Intervene? I would say that a clean break would be a week spent under the 1.20 level. I think the SNB might allow some crack of the floor before gathering mustard to defend the level. But if it does not do so after a week of EUR/CHF below 1.20, we can start expecting the slide towards 1.15.