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Fan Yang

Catepillar (CAT) at Key Support and it Looks Shaky

Catepillar $CAT has been in consolidation since finding resistance around $173 in January 2018. The daily chart shows the initial dip that eventually settled into a range between roughly 138 and 160.

CAT Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Momentum vs. Support:
- In 2018 we can see that the RSI has dipped to 30 and then held mostly under 60, other than the brief time in the middle of May.
- This suggests a maintenance of the bearish momentum.
- We also see that the bearish swings have be sharper than the bullish attempts.
- Finally, price fell below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) this week.
- These are signs that bulls are giving up, and bears are in control.
- We might see some short-term support here at the $138-$139 support, but I would not rely on any strong rebound here.
- More likely, the bearish momentum will take CAT below the $138 support.
- A break below the $138 level might send CAT towards the $120 level. 
- CAT might have entered a prolonged period of consolidation after the strong 2-year rally from 2016 to 2018. 
- I would not be surprised if CAT is still in correction or sideways consolidation mode by mid-2019. 
- At this point, I would be very surprised if price rebounds and climbs above $150 a share, which warrants reassessment of the bearish correction scenario. 

CAT Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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