In June, we noted that Alcoa was in a bearish correction mode, and had downside towards the $40 level. Today's (7/19) price action further confirms this outlook.AA Daily Chart(click to enlarge)Breakout and Slingshot:- After price came down to the rising trendline, we price hug the trendline, rallying slowly.- Then, price came up to the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). - We then saw a rejection and price fell sharply after that. - Note that the weak bullish attempt was rejected at a key resistance factor, followed by a strong bearish swing. - This dynamic suggest bears are in charge.- $40 is therefore a very conservative bearish outlook at this point.- But $40 is a key pivot, because it was a previous resistance for a range. - AA holding support at $40 would boost the case for a bull run in the medium to long-term after the the recent correction.- Furthermore, the weekly RSI would be holding at 40. Turning up from 40 after it already pushed above 70 would be a sign of continual bullish momentum.- But if we are looking at the long-term, we shouldn't be so precise on where we expect the support. It can start around $40, but if there is still some short-term bearish momentum, we can see price come down to $35 before finding support within the same context - that the market has bottomed, and is respecting that bottom ahead of a bull market. AA Weekly Chart(click to enlarge)