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Evaluating Gold's Bullish Correction

This week gold has rallied from the low around 1183 to about 1233. This is a strong bullish correction already relative to those seen since the decline from 1345.28. However, don't be so quick to jump on gold. It is far from showing bullish signs outside the context of a short-term USD-correction. This is after all seen across the board, and not a sign of gold-strength in particular.

(Gold 4H Chart 10/10)

From a technical perspective let's take a look at the 4H chart. We can see price holding below a previous resistance area. If this week's rising trendline is broken, sellers might push gold lower, but the 1205 area is another line of defense for gold-bulls If price can hold above this 1205-1210 central area of this week's price action, we might be building a price bottom and signaling a medium-term consolidation with further upside risk above 1240. 

(gold daily chart 10/10)

When looking at the daily chart, we can see that if price indeed falls back to 1205 but pops back up, an inverse head and shoulders pattern might be developing. A break above 1240, regardless of whether price puts in a shoulder, will clear above a falling trendline from August, a previous support pivot that can be interpreted as a resistance factor, and some local price resistance as well. 

This opens up the 1270 area, but we should monitor this area for sellers. It is the bottom of a common support area, near the 200-period SMA in the 4H chart, and it is also reinforced by a falling trendline from July's high of 1345.28.

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