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Fan Yang

EUR/USD Maintains Bearish Bias

The EUR/USD has been consolidating since last Friday's Non-Farm Payroll. The reaction was mixed, and the market is still trying to figure out whether to be bullish or bearish on EUR/USD.

NFP Beats Forecasts; EUR/USD Has 1.08 in Sight

EUR/USD 4H Chart 7/12

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Prior to NFP:
Before the US jobs data last Friday, EUR/USD has been bearish throughout May, consolidated in June, but fell sharply at the end of the month after Brexit.
After a period of bullish correction, price stalled at 1.1185 and fell.
We can see that the dip last week broke below the consolidation's rising support.
For me, the break below consolidation opened up the low in the 1.09-1.0950 area.

Stuck in the post NFP range:
After the NFP release on Friday, EUR/USD whipsawed. It rallied but eventually fell to new lows on the week.
However, price has since remained within last Friday's range: 1.10-1.1120. 
Today, price came up and cracked 1.1120, but we can see that the market eventually rejected EUR/USD from going above.

Still Bearish:
The failed bullish breakout shows that bulls are weak.
The prevailing trend in the short to medium-term has been bearish, so the underlying bias is still bearish.
Still, we will have to see if EUR/USD can break below 1.10 - this scenario opens up the 1.08 handle.

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