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Gold (XAU/USD) - Technical Update 11/25

Gold has been trading in a triangle since the beginning of last week after price fell from 1098 to 1064.70.

Gold 1H Chart 11/25

(click to enlarge)

This week, price failed to breach 1080 and respected the triangle resistance. It is now falling back towards triangle support. 

Bullish Scenario: At this point, if price does NOT reach triangle support and the 1H RSI holds above 40, then we should expect some upside risk in the short-term to break 1080 again, and possible test the next resistance pivots near 1088 and 1100.

The More Likely Bearish Scenario: Otherwise, we should note that the prevailing trend is bearish entering the current range between 1064.70 and 1100. In that that 1064.70 level was a new low on the year. Take a look at the 4H chart. We can see that the bearish outlook is still intact and that the RSI is no longer oversold. The 1065 area is still in sight with risk of price breaking lower especially if the market continues to price in an rate hike by the fed. 

XAU/USD 4H Chart 11/25

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Targets:
A psychological level like 1150 is very well within reach, with downside risk towards the 2010 low at 1044.10. Then, a slightly more aggressive but very probable target is the 1000 psychological handle, which also represents a consolidation resistance from 2008 through most of 2009. 

XAU/USD Weekly Chart 11/25

(click to enlarge)

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