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Fan Yang

AUD/USD Expecting Sellers on a Rally

The 4H AUD/USD chart shows a market that just broke below some key support factors to signal a bearish continuation scenario. After rallying from a fresh low on the year at 0.8540, AUD/USD found resistance at 0.8795 and retreated relatively sharply compared to the pace of the rally.

AUD/USD 4H Chart 11/20
(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows price now under the 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs and below the rising trendline from the 0.8540 low. The 4H RSI has tagged 30 again, showing bearish momentum. With both bearish bias and momentum back, AUD/USD is poised to test the 0.8540 low with risk of breaking towards 0.85.

However, as we get into the 11/20 US session, we are seeing some USD-selling across the board. This can allow AUD/USD to form a pull back. If this happens, we should expect sellers around 0.87, a previous support/resistance pivot area, and where the cluster of SMAs begin. A break above 0.87 does not take away the bearish outlook just yet, but we should still expect sellers here, especially if the RSI approaches but holds below 60.

A break above 0.89 will be needed to shift the medium-term outlook from bearish to neutral and slightly bullish. For now, the market is bearish, and should remain so below 0.87. Above 0.87, the market would still be bearish, but would likely be in a longer consolidation period. 

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