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Fan Yang

XAU/USD (Gold) is Bearish but Might First Rally from a Double Bottom

Bearish Market Since 2011:
Looking at gold on a weekly chart, we can see that it has come down a long way since making a historic high around 1920 in September 2011. 

XAU/USD Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Signs:
1) Price is under the 200-, 100-, and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs)
2) The RSI has been holding under 60 and tagging 30.

These are signs that the market is in a strong bearish mode. On the other hand there are a couple of reasons to believe there is support here starting around 1045-1050, where the market has tagged recently. 

Support Factors:

1) Price is on top of a support/resistance zone.
2) There is a bullish divergence between price and the weekly RSI. 

Bullish vs. Bearish in Different Time-Frames
These are technical conditions that suggest a possible short-term to medium-term bounce. However, the medium to long-term trend remains bearish so we should limit the bullish outlook to be within the context of a bearish market.

Also we should be aware of conventional wisdom that says a hawkish Fed would put pressure on gold priced in the USD because it would lift the USD across the board. 

XAU/USD 4H Chart 12/24

(click to enlarge)

Double Bottom: 
The 4H chart shows gold consolidating since the beginning of December. Almost a month later it has established support around 1046 and resistance around 1090. It does indeed look like a price bottom is forming, so a break above 1090 could invite some short-term rally, especially if a pullback holds above 1070-1075 central pivot area. 

Bullish Target:
If we consider limiting this bullish outlook, we should look in the 50-61.8% retracement area roughly between 1120 and 1135. This area also involves a projection of the width of the would-be-broken double bottom. 

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