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Fan Yang

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) at Key Support

Shares of Chipotle (CMG) seem to have stabilized towards the end of 2016. Stock price might even have formed a price bottom, or is in the process of completing one. We just can't say its bullish yet, because it continues to trade under the 435-440 key resistance area. Now, it has retreated to a key support area: 395-400.

Chipotle (CMG) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Key Support:
- If Chipotle is in a bullish reversal mode, the 395-400 area should hold. 
- IF price instead falls below 395, it is at best still in consolidation mode, and possibly still bearish after consolidation.
- Looking at the daily chart, the 395-400 area involves a rising trendline, a previous support pivot, and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). 

Reward to Risk of Going Long:
- There is upside potential back to 412 support/resistance pivot, even if the overall mode has returned to bearish.
- If price is no longer bearish, there is upside potential to at least 430. 
- A break below 395 should invalidate these bullish targets. 
- So if we enter at 402, a stop at 392, the conservative target at 412 basically offers a 1:1 reward to risk.
- The slightly more aggressive target at 430 offers a reward to risk of 2.8:1.

I think the reward to risk is decent enough, especially with the potential upside towards the next key resistance area around 480.

Chipotle (CMG) Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

As we can see on the weekly chart, the mode is still bearish-neutral, and definitely not bullish. 
However, price action in 2016 seems to have started a rounded bottom, and price action could complete this bottom in 2017. 

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