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Fan Yang

AUD/USD - Short-term Consolidation Range

The AUD/USD fell to 0.7598 last week and started to consolidate between that low and 0.7660.

AUD/USD 1H Chart 6/8

(click to enlarge)

The AUD/USD is neutral-bearish in 2 time-frames. In the very short-term, it is consolidating after a bearish swing from 0.7818. Note that price is under the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages while the RSI holds under 60 after tagging below 30. 

The AUD/USD also has a bearish bias in the medium-term because coming into June, the trend has been bearish. 

AUDI/USD 4H Chart 6/8

(click to enlarge)

the 4H chart shows AUD/USD falling from just above 0.8150 to 0.7598 in May. Now let's say price holds above 0.7598 and rallies back above 0.7660. In that case, we would have a potential double bottom forming. I would first look for resistance in the 0.77 area and wait for a pullback. If price then respects the 0.7598-0.7660 range as a price bottom, then I would look for AUD/USD to attack the 0.7818 resistance. 

The scenario in-line with the prevailing trend however would be a break below 0.7598 which would continue the downtrend towards the low on the year. 

AUD/USD Daily Chart 6/8
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that the low on the year at 0.7532 is not far from the current price range.. Note that since February, price has essentially been trading sideways. However, after a failed bullish breakout in April and the first half of May, traders showed that this is still a bear's market. Therefore, the 0.7532 low will be vulnerable if price does reach this previous support. 

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