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Fan Yang

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Short-term Price Bottom Completed

The price of Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading around $6300 and is now breaking for a bull run.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

Price Bottom

  • As we can see on the 4H chart, price has formed a significant bottom after a bearish swing at the start of September.
  • This could be the start of a bull run in the short-to-medium term (next week or month).
  • As far as price goes, since the bottom was above the August bottom, we can anticipate price attacking the August high around $7400.
  • It would not be a surprise if price pushes above and still remain within the context of a long-term (year or two) consolidation.
  • Look at the daily chart. This is a chart that tells you the market is getting more and more uncertain and tentative about bitcoin. A small break let’s say towards $8000 would not necessarily be a bullish breakout because that move would be within the volatility of July’s price action.
  • Maybe a break above $8500 would be the only price action now that would convince me of a price bottom.
  • Otherwise, I would anticipate further consolidation and a break below $5800 for a strong flush below that support level with downside risk to $3000.
  • We might still want to play the $6000 area support, but I think if we are already in the market, we should keep some dry powder on the side for even more price bubble deflation.
  • Despite the corrective price action in 2018, I still believe in the long-term upwards value of bitcoin.
  • To me, there is an asymmetry favoring the reward side even if the probability of upside is 33%. (1/3 go to zero and not any lower. Or go 10x. The thing is , if it goes 10x, we should probably take profit as I believe many would around $50000.)

BTC/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

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