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Fan Yang

Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN) Challenged at Key Resistance

We have not been looking at $TAN for a while. Last time, we saw TAN bounce off of $23 and noted that it is in a bullish continuation, which indeed materialized as price pushed above the then high of $25.50 and reached $26.70 before retreating again.

TAN Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Still Bullish?
- The daily chart shows that price dipped after reaching $26.70. Part of this was just a technical correction, and part of it was based on overall market sentiment, which turned bearish in early February. 
- The thing is, price bounced off of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) like a boss. 
- The thing is, so did the overall market sentiment. And TAN in the past few weeks is simply mirroring that sentiment.
- While the S&P500 is now stalling, so is TAN at a key resistance.
- The daily chart shows that price is at a previous resistance as well as a projected rising trendline that is broken as support and now tested as resistance.
- Meanwhile, the RSI is right around 60. A bearish market would likely keep the RSI below 60. 
- Therefore, this chart is giving me is telling me that TAN has material edge above 50% of falling back towards the key support around $22.50-$23.
- Note that in this scenario, the price might still be above the 200-day simple moving average, and the long-term trend could still be bullish.
- A break below $21 will be needed to convince me TAN is turning bearish. 
- Some might say that a head and shoulders pattern is forming, but even if that is true, that only tells us that price is in consolidation. So the longer-term bullish scenario could still hold as long as the overall trend since 2017 is still on. 
- And I think a break below $21 will be needed to convince me that the bull run since 2017 is over .

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