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Fan Yang

Triumph Group (TGI) Establishing a Price Bottom With Upside to at Least $30

Aerospace company Triumph Group $TGI is completing what looks like a price bottom as it cracks the $25 level. It still hasn't cleared and closed above this key resistance or neckline, but some technical or price action signs are pointing up.

TGI Daily Chart

(click to enlarge) 

Bullish Reversal?
- As we can see on the daily chart above, TGI has been bearish entering 2019. 
- After rallying from just above $11 a share to about $22.50 a share, price retreated in February and March.
- However, price anchored above $18 and surged last week. This latest swing pushed price above the Feb-March highs and also tested the key resistance from August 2018.
- We can also say that price is completing an inverted head and shoulders pattern, where $24.90-$25 area is the neckline.
- So far however price respected the $25 level and has not pushed above this price bottom yet.
Bullish Signs:
- Still, we have some bullish signs in addition to the fact that price action has formed an inverted head and shoulder.
- We saw price break above the cluster of moving averages (200-, 100-, and 50-day). Then, price came back down and tested the moving averages as support. The bounce off of these moving averages as support is known as a bullish slingshot signal.
- Furthermore, the RSI has held above 40 after it pushed above 70 in February. We can say that the bullish momentum from early in the year is intact.
- Finally, we can see that the latest drive up has strong volume, which also bodes well for the bullish outlook.
- I think if the market is indeed bullish, it will hold above $20 area. In fact, if there is a pullback, we will probably see support above that, around $21.50. 
- It will take a break below $17.80 to kill the bullish outlook at this point.
Upside:
- I think there is upside to at least the $30 mark. 
- On the weekly chart, we can see that this is where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) resides. 
- It is almost a key support/resistance pivot.
- However, if price can anchor above $25 (treating this previous resistance area as support), I think there could be upside to #34.75-$35, which represents the 2017 high.

TGI Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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