Send me real-time posts from this site at my email
Fan Yang

ECB Holds Benchmark Rate; EUR/USD Remains in Recent Range

The European Central Bank (ECB) concluded its latest monetary policy meeting with essentially nothing new. The bank held its benchmark interest rate to 0% and is continuing its asset purchase program. Basically, the ECB has not turned the corner from its dovish stance toward a hawkish one.

Monetary Policy Decision Press Release (3/9)

EUR/USD 4H Chart 3/9

(click to enlarge)

Mixed Reaction:
- With nothing new to go on, the market didn't really push the EUR/USD either way. There was some initial bullish reaction, but the pair faded after the ECB press conference.
- Without much to go on and with the US NFP looming ahead, EUR/USD should remain in the current range. 
Anticipating Breakout:

- A clean break above 1.0650 should signal a bullish outlook, with the 1.08 in sight in the short to medium-term. The 1.10 handle would also be in sight for the medium-term.
- A break below 1.0490 on the other hand would push EUR/USD into new lows on the year. 
- First let's remember that the price made a low in January that basically broke below 2 years of consolidation support.
- Indeed it looks like bears have been in charge, and we should probably anticipate a bearish breakout instead of a bullish one.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bears still in Charge:
- The weekly chart shows a market where bears are still in charge despite 2 years of consolidation (2015 and 2016).
- We saw price dip to new lows in 2017.
- It looks like bulls have failed many times to break above 1.15 and failed. Now, bears are working on digging new lows for EUR/USD. 
- The 1.03 handle could be in sight if price breaks below 1.0490, which would clear the current range support.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue