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Fan Yang

WTI Crude Oil Breaks Below Triangle Support

I have been stalking WTI Crude Oil as it formed a descending triangle. This week, after price tested the 45.85 triangle support for a third time, I noted that if price held under 48, price would have a bearish bias and the support would be vulnerable. 

USDWTI - Moment of Truth

USDWTI 4H Chart 7/8

(click to enlarge)

Triangle Broken; Target: Price bounced off of 46, tagged 48 and then fell sharply to break the triangle support. This was the anticipated scenario. The anticipated outlook from this scenario is a bearish extension towards the next key support area between 42.50 and 43. This area is a support/resistance pivot area seen in April and May. 

NFP: Today's key event risk is the US non-farm payroll (NFP). If there is a rally after the NFP, we should watch the 48 area again. A break above 48 would indicate a return to the bullish outlook. However, if USDWTI is still bearish, it should hold under 47 and continue to push below 45 towards the 42.50-43 area.

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