AUD/USD has been choppy in 2018. The daily chart below shows that after a run up in December into January, price started to retreat in February and might continue to do so in March.AUD/USD Daily Chart(click to enlarge)Consolidation, Bearish Scenario:- First of all, price has been choppy throughout 2016 and 2017, meaning there was no clear sign of direction. - Eventually, AUD/USD did make higher lows and higher highs by the end of 2017. - The thing is, this is not the structure of a healthy uptrend.- The fact that price failed to make a new high in late January shows that AUD/USD is probably in a sideways market.- In the short-term, we might have some bearish outlook IF price can hold under 0.79, which is where price is now during the start of the 3/14 Asian session.- In this bearish scenario, we can anticipate a push towards 0.77 and possible 0.7650. - This is a conservative bearish outlook, because in a sideways market, there is downside to the 0.75 support pivot from December. (see weekly chart below)Bullish Scenario:- Now if price holds above 0.7750 and pushes back to the 0.81 resistance. I would anticipate a break because it would show a bullish bias. - This bullish bias would be based on the fact that price anchored above the projected sideways range we see on the weekly chart (where the upwards channel turns into a sideways channel). - Also note that if price holds above 0.7750 and pushes to 0.81, it means price held above the cluster of moving averages, another strong bullish sign.AUD/USD Weekly Chart(click to enlarge)