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USD Data (10/31): Inflation, Spending, Income, Labor Cost, Manufacturing, and Sentiment

Today, we had some second tier fundamental data out of the US.

Core PCE Price Index m/m (Sept): 0.1%
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous: 0.1%
Held close to flat reading, this inflation gauge needs to start rising before the Fed can get serious about considering a rate hike.

Personal Spending: m/m (Sept): -0.2%

Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.5%
Personal Income m/m (Sept): 0.2%
Previous: 0.3%
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal income growth cooled to 0.2%, which was the lowest since December 2013. Personal spending 0.2% in September. 

Employment Cost Index q/q (Q3):  0.7%
Forecast 0.6%
Previous 0.7%
(click to enlarge; source:

Governments and businesses have been adding cost of labor at 0.7% on the quarter in Q2 and Q3. This higher cost reflects growth in the labor market in terms of the number of jobs, but wage growth has not picked up yet. There is still "considerable slack" in the labor market, suggesting we need even more job growth because the forces of supply and demand will favor a wage growth environment.

Chicago PMI (October): 66.2
Forecast: 60.2
Previous: 60.5
(click to enlarge; source:

Manufacturing has been heating up in the US. In October, the region covered by the Chicago Fed saw manufacturing  growth accelerate. The Chicago PMI is now at the highest point since June 2011, when it read 68.7. 

Revised UM Consumer Sentiment 86.9
Forecast: 86.4
Previous: 86.4

(click to enlarge; source:

Consumer sentiment is at the highest point since July 2007. That's when the financial crisis just got started. Sentiment continues to improve and should help sustain recovery that will lead to wage growth in 2015. At least this is the scenario that will allow the FOMC to raise rates in mid-2015. 

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