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Fan Yang

GBP/JPY Signals a Bearish Swing

GBP/JPY has been consolidating in a tight range between 186.48 and 187.55. Last week, price broke 187.55 briefly, but as we can see in the 4H chart, it was not clear.

GBP/JPY 4H Chart 12/30

(click toe enlarge)

More importantly price then fell back below the middle of the range around 187, which invalidated the bullish breakout. Remember when we have false breakouts, we should also monitor for a breakout in the other direction. In this case, the false bullish breakout was indeed followed by a strong bearish breakout.

Looking at the 4H chart, we can see a support/resistance pivot area between 184.50 and 185. With the 4H RSI likely to be at 30 if price approaches this area, we can expect some support here. Then, if the market is indeed in a bearish mode for the short to medium term, we should find resistance in the 186.45-187 area. If the broken range stands as resistance with 187 holding, there is further downside risk to
1) 183-183.50 support area (also where the 50-day SMA resides)
2)182 handle
3) 181.56 December-low.
4) 18.85-181.10 (support/resistance pivot area)
5) The 178.70-80 (previous common resistance, and where the 100-day SMA resides)

When we look at the daily chart we can see the various levels to monitor. We should keep in mind that since 2011, the JPY is likely in a secular bear market (bearish for 5-25 years). With that in mind, after a short to medium-term bearish correction, we should anticipate buyers. If the GBP/JPY is still bullish, after the correction, look for buyers also when the daily RSI approaches 40. 

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 12/30

(click to enlarge)

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