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Fan Yang

Stalking the AUD/USD Bearish Breakout

I have been bearish on AUD/USD in the medium-term and suggested waiting for it to fall to 0.72 before considering support. In May, we saw AUD/USD climb up in a small rising channel, but last week, price was threatening to break below this channel and revive the prevailing downtrend. This week, we can see the bearish breakout and further evidence of downside.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bearish Signs in the Daily Chart:
- First of all, despite the climb up in May, price remained under the 200- and 100-day simple moving averages as well as the previous resistance pivot of 0.7550.
- Furthermore, the daily RSI held under 60 after it tagged 30, which reflects maintenance of the prevailing bearish momentum.
Bearish Signs in the 4H Chart:
- In the 4H chart, price action looked bullish most of May, but the fact that it was in a choppy channel suggests that the dominant trend is still bearish. Noted that the bearish swings have been relatively sharper than bullish runs.
- Now, the 4H RSI pushed to 70, which reflects the bullish momentum in May. It is still above 40, which means May's bullish momentum is still in play.
- However, if the 4H RSI falls below 40, and price falls below the 0.7415 pivot, we would have further evidence of the bearish outlook. 
The Bearish Outlook:
- The bearish outlook would be first the 0.73 handle. 
- Then, below 0.73, price has downside to the 0.7150 area, which is the support of a year-long range (since May 2016). 

AUD/USD 4H Chart

(click to enlarge)

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