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Fan Yang

Exxon Mobil (XOM) - Stalls at Key Resistance But I Think There is Upside to 76.50

Exxon Mobil $XOM l has been choppy in 2018, and ended the year on a bearish swing. After falling to about $65, XOM rebounded back above $70 by the start of the 2019. The $72-$73 area is a previous support pivot and could be acting like resistance at the moment. But I think if price can hold above $70, there is still upside to the $76-$77 area, which I think is a more critical resistance.

XOM Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Critical Resistance:
- If the general equities market is bearish, I would give more respect for the resistance around $72.
- But because the current rebound in the markets continue, I think XOM can also extend its current recovery.
- The next and more critical resistance will be around $76-$77. This is a previous consolidation support area. 
- Also, price would likely meet the falling trendline there. 
- Note that a pull back towards $77 would essentially pull price back to the moving average cluster. This could be interpreted as a "regression to the mean".
- Finally, the RSI would likely be back around 60 by the time price reaches up to $76. 
- If we assume that the overall trend is still bearish, we can anticipate resistance when the RSI approaches 60. 
Downside:
- While the trend appears to be bearish, I think we are closing in on a bottom if price approaches $60. 
- On the weekly chart we can see that there is a critical support support just above $55.
- Therefore, we should probably limit our bearish outlook to $60 for now.
- We can also expect support if price dips to the $56-$60 area. 

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