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Fan Yang

I Think UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a Buy-the-Dip Candidate

UnitedHealth Group $UNH fell sharply during the 4/16 session. This followed a better than expected earnings report. Let's first take a look at earnings: 

  • Revenues of $60.3 Billion Grew 9% Year-Over-Year
  • Earnings from Operations Increased 19% to $4.8 Billion, With Strong Earnings Growth at Optum and UnitedHealthcare
  • Net Earnings of $3.56 Per Share Grew 24% Year-Over-Year
  • Adjusted Net Earnings of $3.73 Per Share Grew 23% Year-Over-year

Read more about the earnings report from Business Wire

Let's take a look at the price chart:

UNH Daily Chart

(click to enlarge)

Bears in Charge:
- As we can see, after price breached $285 briefly in Nov/Dec 2018, price started to retreat sharply. 
- It remains in bearish correction mode. The 4/16 session candle engulfed the previous (4/15 session) bullish candle. 
- With the previous candle also sharply bearish, UNH is signaling bearish continuation.
Capitulation:
- However, even though there could be some downside in the short-term, I think the bearish correction is capitulating. 
- The strong volume suggests that a price bottom could be ahead after the weak hands are flushed out.
Support:
- When we look at the weekly, we can see that the $210 area will be the first key support area. This was a common support in late 2017 and early 2018.
- We also see $200 and $190 as next possible support pivots. 
- Essentially, the $190-$210 range, or on average the $200 mark could be a good level to anticipate support. 
- I think UNH will stabilize around here. But the upside will likely be limited until after the presidential election in 2020. 
- Upside would likely be limited to $240-$250 in the meanwhile. But again, I think downside will be capped around $190.

UNH Weekly Chart

(click to enlarge)

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