It's been a good ride on the EUR/USD downtrend. Last week I had already closed a couple of positions by the time the pair got to 1.1150. But I re-entered 2 positions, albeit clumsily around 1.12 with targets 1.1150 and 1.11. I have to say I feel lucky that EUR/USD just tagged 1.11 before ending the week with a rebound to 1.1140. EUR/USD 1H Chart 5/30(click to enlarge) I actually started to re-enter at 1.1180, stopped out above 1.12 but was fortunate enough to mechanically enter at 1.12 after I saw some strong selling above 1.12. My conservative target was 1.1150, which would be above the week's low in case the market doesn't extend. The second (aggressive) target was 1.11, and that barely hit. Now, I believe I should stay away from EUR/USD for a little while. The short-term downtrend is intact, but the volatility is getting more choppy. I feel like there could be some additional exposure added around 1.1160, but I would not want the risk to take away too much of the gains I got out of EUR/USD in the past 2 weeks. The main technical reason I want to lay off EUR/USD is that it is near the middle, or central pivot area, of a consolidation range that has been developing for over a year. EUR/USD Weekly Chart 5/30(click to enlarge)The weekly chart shows that the last month of decline has brought EUR/USD back to the middle of the consolidation range. You can say that this is a "neutral" or "fair" price area around 1.11.Furthermore, we can see that EUR/USD is at the crossroads, falling to a rising support. If price can hold above 1.11 and push above 1.12 next week, we might want to consider a long-term bullish outlook and plan for it. A break below 1.11 on the other hand can open up further decline towards the 1.08 pivot then the 1.05 low. I would have more confidence of this bearish outlook after a break below 1.11, and after seeing a rebound failing to push above 1.12.