We looked at USD/JPY earlier in the week, and I noted that usd-yen was at the top of a critical support area. Essentially the 100 psychological and actual support level was being tested. This was a common support going back to July.USD/JPY 4H Chart 9/29(click to enlarge)100 held as support:- I noticed that if price can hold above 100, we should see a push towards 102. - Price indeed completed a double bottom this week, and is now around 101.50, not quite 102. - I think now that price is off of the 100 level, it is back in the middle of a consolidation and is essentially neutral.- In other words I see equal likelihood of price pushing further towards 102-102.50 and price falling back towards 100. Trendline:- If price does push towards 102-102.50, then we should anticipate resistance with downside risk of at least 101. - Now, if price pushes above 102.50 and the falling trendline while taking the 4H RSI above 70, then I would start to consider a bullish development. Anticipating choppiness within the consolidation mode:- The thing is, USD/JPY is in a consolidation pattern over the past few months, and we should be cautious of continuing bearish bias. - What we haven't seen is price starting to make meaningful higher lows instead of falling back to 100. When that happens, we can have more confidence of a bullish reversal scenario. - For now, we should respect the falling trendline. And even if it breaks, we should anticipate choppy bearish swings because USD/JPY could still be in consolidation.